As I said at the press conference, it’s rare for us to reveal our findings so soon. But this was a special case–people needed to know the incidents weren’t down to terrorism or some goddamned supernatural event, and the families of the survivors needed closure. You wouldn’t believe the number of calls the Washington office fielded from whackos convinced we were in cahoots with sinister Men in Black government agencies. Course, added into the mix was the fact that after Black Thursday the aviation industry was suffering financially, needed to get back on track. You heard that a few of the more unscrupulous airlines are cashing in on the fact that all three survivors were seated towards the rear of the aircraft? Charging a premium for the seats at the back; considering relocating First and Business Class to the rear to recoup lost profits.

It was obvious to us early on that terrorism wasn’t a factor. We knew from the bodies and wreckage recovered that none of the aircraft in any of the four instances had broken up significantly mid-air, which would have been the case had an explosive device been triggered. Sure, we had to consider a possible hijacking scenario at first, but no organisation came forward at any time to take responsibility.

As you know, there’s still a massive operation underway to locate the CVR and black box from the site of the Go!Go! Air incident, but we’re confident we know the sequence of events that led to the disaster. First of all, from the aircraft’s flight path and the weather data, we know they found themselves flying into a severe thunderstorm. The last contact from the aircraft, an automated telemetry message to the Go!Go! Air technical centre, indicated that the aircraft had undergone multiple electrical failures, most notably of the static port heating system. This would have resulted in ice crystals forming in the static ports, which in turn would have resulted in inaccurate airspeed readings. Thinking that their airspeed was too low, the pilots would have progressively increased the speed of the aircraft to avoid a stall. We believe they continued doing so until they exceeded the aircraft’s capabilities and literally flew the wings off the thing. We’re almost certain Jessica Craddock’s burn injuries were caused by a fuel fire after the event, or from a malfunctioning flare.

Now, the Dalu Air flight was a different story. The series of factors that added up to that crash pointed to an accident waiting to happen. For a start, the design of the Antonov AN-124 dates back to the seventies, light years away from the ‘fly by wire’ technology used by Airbus. The aircraft was also operated by a small Nigerian outfit that mostly flew freight and which, it must be said, didn’t have the best safety record. Won’t go into too many technicalities again, but Cape Town International airport’s ILS wasn’t working that day–apparently it can be hokey. Also, the Antonov wasn’t fitted with modern navigation equipment such as LNS [Lateral Navigation System] and wasn’t adequately equipped to deal with the alternative approach system. The pilots misjudged the approach, came in approximately one hundred feet too low, the right wing clipped a power line and the Antonov immediately crashed into a densely populated township situated adjacent to the airfield. Gotta say, we were all impressed with how the Dalu Air investigation was handled by the CAA and the Cape Town Disaster Management Team. Those guys and gals know their stuff. You wouldn’t think it for a third world country, but they really got their ducks in a row asap. The head investigator–Nomafu Nkatha (don’t think I pronounced that correctly, Elspeth!)–gathered eye-witness accounts immediately after the event, and several people had caught the moments before impact on their cellphone cameras.

The investigators have still got a job on their hands identifying the bodies of those killed at the site. Looks like a lot of them were refugees or asylum seekers and it’s going to be a near-impossible task tracking down family members for DNA matches. The CVR was recovered eventually. Guys had been collecting the parts, selling them off to tourists–can you believe that shit? But like I say, top marks to the team out there.

Next one I’ll deal with was the Maiden Air crash–the one I was IIC on, before I was asked to oversee the whole operation. The evidence suggests that the aircraft suffered an almost total power loss on both engines due to ingestion–probably as a result of multiple bird strike. This occurred roughly two minutes after take-off, which is the most vulnerable phase of the climb. The pilots were unable to return to the airport and the aircraft crashed into the Everglades approximately three to four minutes later. We found the black box on this one, but the data was compromised. The N1 Turbines on both engines showed damage consistent with bird strike although there was, curiously, no trace of snarge. In line with my recommendations, the board ruled that engine failure due to multiple bird strike was the most probable cause of the crash.

Then we had the one that I’d say was the most controversial. I’m talking about the Sun Air incident. The rumours that were going around about the cause of that crash were hard to contain–most notably the fallacy that Captain Seto was suicidal and brought the plane down deliberately. On top of this, the Japanese minister of transport’s wife said publicly that she believed aliens were involved. There was real pressure on us to sort that out asap. We had the CVR, which indicated a loss of hydraulics, and we know from the black box that the aircraft was effectively brought down by shoddy workmanship. The failure to follow basic repair procedures to the tail section resulted in rivets giving way. The structural integrity of the fuselage was compromised, resulting in explosive decompression some fourteen minutes into the flight. The rudder was damaged and the hydraulics were lost, and when this happens, it’s just about impossible to steer the aircraft. Pilots fought with that baby as hard as they could. Gotta admire them for that. We ran comparative test in simulators and no one has been able to keep it in the air as long as they did.

Course, we had to field a ton of questions at the press conference, lots of the reporters wanted to know where the bright lights a couple of the passengers said they’d seen came from. Could have been any number of things. More than likely lightning. That’s why we made the transcript of the CVR recording public asap, to stop those rumours in their tracks.